June 22, 2021

News Cymru

Two sides to every headline

Expert “bets” there will be a second wave during the winter.

Many issues with this article, I’ll take them one by one.

The most obvious problem is the expert is “betting” that there will be a second wave of the virus this winter. I am almost positive this is not a scientifically rigorous term.

Given that he is not basing his “bet” on anything scientific (if he is he failed to mention it) I don’t see any reason to see a second wave in the UK and a couple of front line doctors agree with me, one from Spain and one from the UK.

Maybe the Professor thinks the temperature has an effect? Again, on what basis? Cases in California and Greece are increasing during the hottest period of the year, this suggests that temperature plays no part in the spread, at least on the surface.

He then goes on to say he predicts that a vaccine with limited effectiveness will be available at the end of the year. Given we have not managed to come up with a vaccine for MERS or SARS, viruses which have been around for much longer than COVID19, I am not sure where the optimism comes from.

He then goes on to say that children are “pretty infectious”. I would love to know what data he is referring to because up until now the general consensus has been that no studies have been done on children and that asymptomatic people in general have very low or zero potential to transmit the virus. He makes a pretty serious claim but going by the sources link to above, the claim appears to be completely baseless.

He then makes a statement which seems to be based on research, namely that we may be closer to herd immunity that we realise.

In short, I think the interview was a Professor giving his opinion and it should be taken as such ie not medical advice. I personally prefer to listen to opinions of front-line doctors or people that have done some research.

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