Lethality vs Measures – COVID19 Greece

This is a continuation of an article on France. Do we see the same correlation in Greece, specifically do we see the lethality of COVID19 increasing when measures like lockdowns are introduced?

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The Lethality Calculation

To calculate the lethality of COVID19 over time we use this equation

Deaths / (Tests / Cases) = Lethality

Using this number we eliminate the variable of testing numbers. (Looking at cases in isolation is a completely meaningless metric because it can be driven by the number of tests).

So what do we have for Greece? – Download the raw data from here

Trends

Around the 15th of September the trend starts heading upwards but very slightly. Around the 23rd of September it stabilises

Around the 15th of October there is a very slight uptick

Around the 28th of October we get a big spike upwards which lasts a few days, the trend then flattens.

From the 4th of November the trend has been on a steep upward trend, at least until the 12th of November but we will probably need a few more days to be sure if this is the peak.

Measures & Correlations

Did we see any measures correlating to these trend changes?

Around the 27th of July we saw widespread mandates for the wearing of masks in most indoor public places. Around the 16th of August we see the trend for lethality lifting off the base slightly.

Around the 24th of October masks became mandatory outside. Two weeks later around the 7th of November, we see an uptick in the lethality.

Thessaloniki bars, restaurants were closed on the 30th of October. Non essential businesses closed on the 2nd of November. Two weeks later Thessaloniki is in the middle of a steep trend upwards, a trend which started 5 days after lockdown introduced.

Athens entered lockdown on 6th Of November.

Conclusions

The wearing of masks indoors did not seem to have a big effect at all and if so, it took two weeks to start coming through. In a negative way.

When masks made mandatory outside we see a steep uptick in lethality a week later. 24Oct-28Oct

When Thessaloniki put under lockdown we see a steep uptick in lethality a week later. 30Oct-4Nov

With the entire country entering a lockdown on the 6th of November we might see a further uptick around the 11th. However as I said for France, the lethality cannot continue upwards forever, there is a limit so perhaps we are seeing the peak around the 13th of November. Time will tell.

The other possibility is that the measures have absolutely no effect on the virus. Given that we are seeing parallel rises in deaths in many countries at the same time I would say the biggest driver, could be atmospheric effects with everything else have a much minor effect.

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