December 6, 2021

News Cymru

Two sides to every headline

COVID19 France – A New Lethality Metric

To measure the severity of COVID19, the media focuses on “cases”. But the number of cases are directly related to the number of tests. This new metric compensates for the number of tests, cases and deaths.

Deaths per Tests per Case – Virus Lethality

It’s a simple metric but arguable gives us a stable target which we can analyse from which we can see the reality behind COVID19 in France and any country that reports the test, cases and daily death numbers.

In effect it tells us the lethality of the virus

We can pull the relevant data from here

This is the graph we get for deaths per test per case.

What do we see?

The trend line is a 7 day moving average.

Around the 18th of October we can see the lethality starting to go up

Around the 24th of October we have a further uptick

Around the 30th of October we have another uptick

Around the 5th we have a big spike up


Unfortunately from the 9th of November it appears that France has stopped reporting test numbers.


Looking at the dates detailed above, are they related to any changes in government policy?

On the 5th a curfew was brought in in Paris and bars and restaurants were closed

This was extended to other cities on the 10th of October.

We are told that changes like this take around 2 weeks to have an effect.

Do we see any changes two weeks after these dates ie around the 19th of October and 26th of October?

In a word, yes, these dates more or less the exact days we see an uptick in the lethality of the virus.

On the 22nd of October the restrictions were extended to more areas.

Two weeks later on the fifth of November we have another big spike up.

How likely is it that these curfews, three of them, have a two week correlation with the lethality of the virus?

On this evidence at least, it seems the restrictions and curfews increase the lethality of the virus.

A nationwide lockdown was introduced on the 30th of October. Following the 14 day pattern we might see an uptick around the 14th of November. However we have to take into consideration there is probably a limit on the lethality of this virus, I mean it cannot keep increasing forever so perhaps we won’t see an increase in the rate of increase.


I do not offer an explanation here I just state the numbers, you are more than welcome to offer your explanations below.

Get the latest updates in your inbox

I