For a bit of background on my thinking check on this post on the political manoeuvring behind the Greek election date.
Getting back to this article. When will the elections be held and why do I believe there is a very possibility of social unrest on a massive scale?
Here are some articles about the predicted date for Greek elections.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577305451442696944.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/27/greece-election-date-idUSL6E8ER0YZ20120327
http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/04/04/rumors-on-postponement-of-greek-early-elections/
So the consensus is that elections will be held on the 6th of May and that the ruling regime will announce the date next week.
Here is my prediction and I hope I am wrong.
I do not believe Greece will go to elections on the 6th of May.
At the time of writing Samaras is still the favourite to become Prime Minister and I do not believe the Papademos regime or the Troika are prepared to see this happen.
The Papademos regime & the Troika need more time to build up their candidate, Venizelos.
Until Venizelos looks like the favourite to become Prime Minister I expect the date to be postponed.
Venizelos is making progress in the polls but there is not enough time for him to overcome Samaras by May 6th.
For these reasons I believe Greek elections will be announced later than May 6th.
The Papademos regime has already highlighted that the 13th of May is a possibility.
I do not believe this is realistic.
At the earliest I believe Greek elections will be called for the 27th of May at the absolute earliest.
This will give the Papademos regime more time to build up their candidate and more time to fracture the ND vote by building up smaller parties.
At the latest, and this is where the possibility of social unrest comes in, at the latest the election could be called for the middle to end of June.
This, in the eyes of the Troika and the Papademos regime, would guarantee enough time to reduce the popularity of Samaras and to build support for their candidate.
So why social unrest?
Samaras and ND will not be blind to the games being played by Papademos.
The mass media backing that Papademos has at his disposal will be extremely hard for Samaras to fight against. You only have to witness the tour de force that Papandreou showed towards the end of his reign.
I believe Samaras will know that the longer the campaigns go on for, the less likely he is to win and for this reason a huge delay to the elections could force Samaras to speak out against the manipulation of the Greek democratic process by foreign banks and government organisations.
The date for elections is a balancing act for Papademos.
He does not want to run the risk of cornering Samaras into a position where he lashes out and at the same time he wants to set an election date far enough in the future to guarantee their candidate become prime minister.
I hope I am wrong.
I will be the first to admit I have no knowledge of how far in advance elections in Greece are usually called.
It seems to me, a layman, that the 6th of May is extremely late in the day, that would leave only 3 weeks between the announcement and the actual elections.
Considering election dates have been continually postponed I see no reason why the Papademos regime will not at least try to delay the elections at least one more time.
Samaras must have a date in his mind. The latest date he is willing to accept will be closely guarded by him and a few close to him.
Samaras is part of the current regime so there will be some negotiation on the election date, however there has been absolutely no comment from ND.
If Samaras were to be cornered and force to declare that the democratic process in Greece is being manipulated by foreigners the consequences would be massive.
The 3rd biggest party, the KKE has already come out and said as much, re Greece being manipulated by foreigners. Syriza has also said as much. LAOS has already pulled out of the coalition government.
I believe Samaras would have no shortage of support from the Greek political establishment if he were to make such a statement.
I can see the only non supporters of such a declaration being the PASOK party & Papademos regime.
I believe such a statement would be a worse case scenario for the political process and I think it is highly unlikely to happen, but nevertheless, I do think it is a possibility.
If there has been one thing to strike me while following the Greek government crisis is that Samaras and ND believe Greece is a strong country that can work its way out of its problems while PASOK, in my mind, have made it quite clear that the believe that Greece is weak and needs help from the Troika or face “catastrophe” and “chaos”. Those are the words of Papademos and his regime, not mine.
Why would Samaras make such a statement?
The chances to become prime minister of a country are extremely rare, for anyone.
The longer that Samaras is seen to be cooperating with Venizelos the more his political capital is being eroded. The Papademos regime want to draw this out as long as possible. Samaras obviously does not.
I believe Samaras has one shot at becoming prime minister of Greece, if he does not succeed this year I believe he can kiss goodbye to the opportunity forever. And this is why he may be willing to put it all on the line in the name of becoming prime minister.
I hear Greeks saying that Samaras cannot be trusted, he just wants the power, he does not care about Greece or the Greek people.
I believe if this was the case he could have made his life a lot easier by being more complainant to the wishes of the Troika and if he was, he may have been prime minister already.
Many Greeks says he is just like the others.
I believe if this was the case, Greece would not have an unelected prime minister now. If Samaras was a puppet then Papademos would not be needed.
So in summary.
I believe the Greek election dates will be later than what is being predicted in the international media. I personally can see elections being called between the last Sunday in May and the last Sunday in June.
If I am correct, this will be testing the resolve of ND and Samaras to the maximum. Anything later than this then all bets are off.
One thing is for sure, the newspapers will not struggle to find material over the coming weeks.
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