18th of January to Feb 5th COVID19 restrictions were slightly relaxed in Greece, namely people could actually enter shops with 25 square meters per person. This was cancelled on the 5th February with shops closed completely on weekends.
What has happened since the 5th of February?
COVID19 Lethality Index for Greece
Looking at the COVID19 Lethality index for Greece we can see a small but noticeable uptick in the lethality index since restrictions were reintroduced.
I have written many times before but I will say it again now, time and time again we see restrictions being tightened which is then followed almost immediately by an increase in the lethality index ie a worsening of the situation and the 5th of Feb restrictions are no different.
It is beginning to look like we have found a bottom in the Lethality Index when we have restrictions in place. To put it another way, when restrictions are in place there is only so low the Lethality Index can fall to.
Until this point, at best, we have seen no evidence of restrictions reducing the Lethality Index but what we have seen is the distinct possibility of restrictions making things worse which correlates with the Bloomberg Resilience Index.
COVID19 Greece – Basis of Lockdowns
We are told again and again that lockdowns slow the spread of the virus, this may even seem like common sense however for this to be true healthy people would have to be spreading the virus.
To this point I am not aware of any studies that show healthy people spread the virus, this would make lockdowns a strategy without any basis and as such ineffective against the spread of COVID19.
If healthy people are not spreading the virus how can lockdowns possibly improve the situation?
The entire basis of lockdowns are based on an unproven premise. Considering the cost of lockdowns I find this situation completely unacceptable.
The latest article I have been pointed to “proving” asymptomatic transmission was from the BMJ. The article gives three studies on which it says backs up the theory. Out of those three studies I don’t see why they are citing two of them as evidence and the one study that does give an example of asymptomatic transmission, it is of an asymptomatic person testing positive for COVID19 with a PCR test in a household of someone with symptoms. However it is not known if the asymptomatic person is passing on a viable virus, this was never tested for. So again, no evidence showing showing asymptomatic transmission is actually real.
Perhaps the most damming sentence in the entire BMJ article was this
I honestly don’t understand how this can be true.
There must be literally thousands of people being diagnosed with COVID19 who are living in households with people who are healthy. We simply need to monitor the healthy people in that household for viable viruses until two weeks after no symptoms are observed in that house from any person.
Giving the simply massive budgets available for the “fight” against COVID19 I think this kind of testing would not even register. If we could do this testing on even one hundred households our knowledge of transmission would be infinitely better than it is now and we could put this theory of asymptomatic transmission to bed completely if, as looks more likely, it proves to be a non issue.
Given the massive costs of lockdowns and restrictions verus carrying out this kind of experiment, I would have expected governments worldwide to be clamouring to get studies like these up and running. The potential savings to their budgets by not having lockdowns would be simply enormous. Why are they not doing this simply testing?
The fact that studies on asymptomatic transmission appear to have such little resolution and detail, one could be forgiven for thinking the policy here is not know that symptomatic transmission is a phantom, that governments prefer lockdown measures rather than actually knowing if lockdowns give any return on investment.
COVID19 Greece – UK vs SE Asia
We see that countries in SE Asia appear to be handling COVID19 exceptionally well. The use of masks in everyday life has been put forward as an explanation and it is one I tend to think has some merit.
If we look at the UK, it is almost a badge of honour if you make it into work when you are suffering badly from flu. It appears in places like Japan, that if a person is feeling even slightly under the weather they should wear a mask in public. I can see very easily how one country would have an issue with transmission and one doesn’t.
As things stand at the moment in Greece, any person can go to the shops if they send their text message or fill out their form. There is absolutely zero emphasis on people being told if they are feeling even slightly unwell to say indoors.
The entire emphasis is on everyone staying indoors whether they are healthy or not. There is absolutely no distinction made in the measures between healthy people and unhealthy people.
This is a complete and total travesty.
Given the research publicly available to this point on the theory of asymptomatic transmission, it is not surprising in the slightest that lockdowns are not helping stop the spread of the virus and could very well lead to a decline in the health of the population in general.
Our knowledge to this point shows that transmission by people with symptoms in the first 10 days could be a big driver of the virus.
Yet to repeat, the biggest messages coming from the Greek government is on the importance of lockdowns of healthy people and not on telling people with even the slightest cold symptoms to stay indoors at all costs.
Not only is this exactly wrong the costs associated with this wrong policy will see people in Greece paying much higher taxes in the future. If people think taxes are high in Greece today, let us see where they will be in five years.
You could make a case that it was money well spent if asymptomatic transmission was an obvious and real problem. Except we are not even sure asymptomatic transmissions is a problem at all.
The increased taxes, the destruction of Greek businesses, at this point, with the evidence available, is not only for nothing but could also be making the situation worse. Greeks are paying extra taxes in the future to make their financial and personal health worse today.
I appreciate that the last few paragraphs make me look as if I have an axe to grind, that I am fitting in the facts that suit my agenda but the real facts are this, there are no facts to my knowledge that show that healthy people can spread this virus. And this completely undermines lockdowns as a policy, there is simply no way lockdowns can be effective.
I feel this point is too important not to drive it home.
If this comes across as bias then so be it but I feel my bias is no worse and indeed much less damaging than the bias of the media and the government. Their policy is without basis yet the costs are simply massive and the precedents being set by taking away the basics rights of people is being completely and totally underestimated.