April 1, 2023

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COVID19 Forecast Greece 26.3.21

COVID19 Forecast Greece 26.3.21

COVID19 Forecast Deaths – Greece

I am predicting that the 7 day rolling average of deaths will be between 68 and 54 over the next 14 days.

COVID19 Forecast Cases – Greece

Cases are harder to predict. If we use Thessaloniki as a baseline for cases per million of population we would say that Athens could have increasing cases for another week.

Crete and the Peloponnese are also mush lower in the cases per population metric versus Thessaloniki. There is room for cases numbers in these areas to increase a lot.

For these reasons I would not be surprised to see the 7 day rolling average of cases continue to increase at the current rate.

New Forecasting Method

We were sent some analysis by a reader which showed there was a strong relationship between the 7 day rolling average of deaths against the 14 day rolling of the 7 day rolling average of cases. The COVID19 forecast we will do from on, will use this relationship. It appears to be superior to the lethality index.

COVID19 Forecast Greece 26.3.21
7 day rolling average of deaths (blue) versus the 14 day rolling average of the 7 day rolling average of cases (red). Data from EODY

We can see that the deaths in March are not as high as the deaths in November which would suggest the severity of the illness is reducing or people are dealing with the illness better.

One trend which I imagine will continue is that we will see the cases numbers reduce before deaths will start to reduce. At the moment it looks like it will be at least a few days before cases level ofi, if indeed they do start to level off.

COVID19 Forecast Greece – Summary

It really all comes down to whether Thessaloniki is a baseline for the rest of Greece with regards to the number of people infected. If it is, then it would mean many more cases in Greece as infection rates since the virus started have been very low, compared to Thessaloniki.

Three big population areas have much lower infectivity rates namely Athens, Peloponnese and Crete. If, and it is a big if, these areas get the same number of infections per million of the population as Thessaloniki it would mean there are many more cases to come.

As things stand at the moment it would seem the number of cases (on a 7 day rolling average) will continue to increase at least for the next few days with deaths also increasing slightly on a 7 day moving average, for at least the next 7-14 days.

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