Papademos – He has got Samaras by the balls

You have to feel for Samaras. I think he wants to do the right thing for Greece but he is powerless to do anything until he his Prime Minister.

One the one hand Samaras could say screw you, these measures are destroying the country. I am not signing anything.

But he knows what would come next. The Troika would not pay anymore money to the Greek government and this would lead to a Greek default.

Samaras is not prime minister but you know that the first thing the Papademos regime is going to do is blame Samaras and cause chaos.

They would do exactly the wrong things first to destroy’s Samaras reputation and pave the way for an extension of Papademos rule.

After a default Papademos would cut pensions and benefit payments massively, he would increase taxes and the banks would lend even less to Greeks. This would guarantee a default was turned into a real crisis and Papademos would blame Samaras.

He would use this as an excuse to reinforce his control of the country and to further take Greece away from democracy.

On the other hand Samaras could tow the line, negotiate as hard as he could and hope and pray there is an election in the near future.

I think the problem the Troika and Papademos have is they cannot trust Samaras. They cannot trust Samaras to act in their interests instead of the Greek people.

Samaras’s position is so far removed from the action of the Troika it is hard to believe they would let the Greek people vote him in as Prime Minister.

The Troika could find a way not to have elections in Greece or on the other hand, if they were forced into an election, then their Plan B would be to make sure Samaras was part of a “unity government” to limit his power.

Samaras’s position is very weak. At the moment. He can say all the right things but Papademos simply threatens him with a default.

Samaras is very limited to what he can say now. When Samaras played no part in the government he could say everything the government is doing is wrong and there were no consequences.

But now he is part of the government he has been silenced.

Papademos effectively has him by the balls.

Sure, Samaras could continue saying what he believes in, but he has to act in a way completely contrary. This would damage his credibility as he would look hypocritical.

If Samaras for example were to refuse to go along the plans of Papademos you have the situation I outlined initially, Samaras becomes the fall guy.

Samaras is caught between a rock and a hard place.

He can say and act as he feels is right and run the risk of Papademos turning him into one responsible for all the problems.

Or he can tow the line and wait until elections. But this damages his reputation also because he has had to weaken his public position hugely.

If Greece were to default I think Samaras is the best politician to turn the country around.

The problem is Samaras is in danger of being blamed for the default and for the problems after the default AND not be in power.

He would have next to no power and yet get the blame for the problems that Papademos would be causing.

Many Greeks tell me that Samaras is just as bad as the rest. They say look at Papandreou, he promised the world but it turned out to be all lies.

I agree with the lies bit but I think Greeks need to take the blame for Papandreou.

He promised the world but nobody questioned him, and voted with a hope that he could prove everyone wrong.

Samaras is different from Papandreou because he has outlined exactly how he would do to turn the country around.

Samaras has not said everything will be great if you elect me. He has said I belive doing x, y and z is going to help the country, if you think he is right you vote for him, if don’t agree, you don’t vote for him. Very simple.

The problem is that he may not do what he says he will. A problem with all politicians. But at least Samaras is saying specifics rather than just saying “the money exists”.

Samaras is a definite step forward from all the other politicians in Greece at the moment.

Greeks have 3 main choices.

1.Don’t vote
2.Vote for Samaras and hope he will do what he says
3.Hope there is no election and leave Papademos in power (maybe Greece will have a referendum on whether they want elections or not – maybe this is the only way Papademos could stay in power seeing he is not part of any political party)

In summary

Samaras realistically can do one of three things.

1. Samaras can continue saying what he believes while going with the Troika but then he looks like a hypocrite.

2. Samaras coud be silent, vote with the Troika and hope and prey there are elections.

3. Samaras could be vocal, disagree with the Troika and run the risk that he would be blamed for the default and for the bad decisions of Papademos post default

Samaras must have one goal in mind and that is to become the legitimate prime minister in Greece so he can have some control over its direction.

But he has forces pushing against him.

The Troika may not trust him. Even if Greek were to vote Samaras in you have to wonder if the Troika would respect their decision.

I am not saying Samaras is perfect. He does say things that alarm me a lot, for example saying he would not lay off public sector workers, but the majority of what he says I completely agree with.

And I also agree with the comments coming from his party with regards to the actions of the other politicians in Greece. They analyse the political landscape very well.

The problem Samaras has is that he is trying to balance to big responsibilities.

On the one hand he is very close to be being blamed for a artificially bad Greek default,

On the other hand he is very close to being able to take control of the situation.

Unfortunately for Greece, there are many parties who do not want him in control. That should tell Greeks he is doing something right.

Get the latest updates in your inbox