Greek Elections, Further Delays – The political maneuvering and the consequences for the world economy

I have written before about the constant stalling on the holding of general elections in Greece.

The news today is that May is now the most likely date.

You have the favourite to become prime minister Samaras saying that Greece can grow its way out of trouble by reducing taxes and you have immense pressure on the current regime to increase taxes.

Until Samaras gets into line with the current way of thinking there will be no elections in Greece.

Until the Troika are confident that Samaras is going to tow the line, there will be no elections, at least until Samaras is out of the picture.

So things are going to come to a head at some point. Samaras is impatient, it seems like foreigners are getting in the way of him becoming prime minister, how long can he put up with this?

Everyday his party gets more unpopular. It seems to me like a war of  attrition. The Papademos regime are doing as much as they can to cut his popularity. You would have to say Papademos would much prefer for Venizelos to be in the prime minister seat.

Venizelos, in my opinion, has shown himself to be more than willing to do as he is told. He is eager to please authority in my opinion.

Personally I can see the point coming where Samaras demands elections and refuses to take no for an answer.

This will be a critical turning point in Greece. If Samaras has to come out a publicly state that elections are being actively blocked to stop him from getting to power there will be serious repercussions for everybody.

It seems a lot of people in Greece do not like Samaras and think he is the same as Papandreou and Papademos. Personally I disagree.

The issue that Samaras has is that if/when he becomes Prime Minister the financial well-being of the country will not be in his hands. It will be in the hands of the ECB and the Greek central bank.

The Greek central bank has the power to further implode the Greek economy if they feel Samaras is not following their plan. The question is, does Samaras know this? If he does, what is his plan? Will he tow the line? Will be go his own way?

A lot of Greeks seem to believe Greece needs help from foreigners, that the Greek economy is too weak to support itself. Samaras on the other hand seems to believe Greece is a strong country and can fix its own problems. I agree with him.

So back to the issue of elections.Unless Samaras gets into line by the start of April, ie declaring he is 100% committed to the Troika plans and will not reduce taxes, Greeks will not have elections in May.

If Samaras does not do something like this, Greeks can expect further delays and possibly a further step down in the economy that will be used as an excuse not to have elections.

If Samaras comes out and declares his “obedience” then his political capital will be damaged severely and there will be elections.

If he does not state his obedience Greeks can expect further delays.

Samaras is damned if he does and damned if he does not. To become prime minister he needs elections, to get prompt elections he needs to destroy his popularity.

Samaras will be far better off saying Papademos is blocking elections. This will make him more respected and it will force the regime into elections. The problem with this course of action is that he jeopardises his political success. See above for wo controls the Greek economy.

I do not pretend to know how this will pan out but one thing is for sure. Samaras will be coming under attack from the Greek media until he gets in line and elections will be delayed until he publicly declares he is getting into line.

Samaras will be made into public enemy number one, he needs elections and he needs them fast.

The next few weeks are going to be very interesting, the issue about the date for elections is not going anywhere and all sides are going to have to deal with the question, both the Papademos regime with Venizelos and Samaras.

 

 

Get the latest updates in your inbox