Is the Second Wave Over? #COVID19UK

Is the latest lockdown on the 5th of November necessary or has the peak of the second wave passed already?

I am going to look at the first wave, identify how many weeks or days there were between the trough and the peak in daily deaths and transpose that onto the second rise in deaths we are seeing in the UK.

Using my favourite graphical information source

In the UK the deaths started around the 18th of March and peaked on the 14th of April, for the sake of argument, lets call that 1 month.

The second increase in deaths started around the 20th of September but at a relatively low rate of increase, a steepening occurred around the 12th of October. Using the month duration from the first peak, I think it is reasonable to expect the peak in deaths to be reached around the 12th of November. If the situation is the same.

Additional factors

The weather was gradually improving through the first peak as we entered spring, the opposite is true now so this could well extend the rising duration.

The UK lockdown started on the 5th of November with the expressed intention of “flattening” the curve. If this is effective then the rate of increase could be extended.

Combining weather and the lockdown, lets say a 6 week duration of rise.

Start of decline

Assuming we are around the peak daily deaths for around 2 weeks and that the rise will last six weeks, we could see the peak in deaths around the 26th of November with deaths declining around the 10th of December.

Summary

In summary, no, the “second wave” has probably not passed yet.

The rate of increase in deaths should start to slow markedly between the 12th of November and the 26th of November. Add two weeks to these dates and that could be when we start seeing declining deaths.

DISCLAIMER: These are predictions not facts

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